The study that was commissioned by the People’s Vote wants a second referendum, they claim that GDP would shrink by 3.9% annually.
“This is the equivalent of losing the economic output of Wales or the City of London,”
Chancellor Philip Hammond stated that the Brexit deal is better than staying in the EU.
The declaration approved by EU on Sunday sets the withdrawal agreement for UK to Withdraw from the European Union. This also includes a hefty £39bn alimony or divorce bill if you may.
Approved by the EU on Sunday, the withdrawal agreement sets out the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU, including its £39bn “divorce bill”, citizens’ rights and the Northern Ireland “backstop” – a way to keep the Irish border open, if trade talks stall.
NIESR’s research modeled different Brexit scenarios against a control of staying in the EU.
Brexit would greatly reduce annual business income for the UK.This would also discourage investors from investing in the UK and all members would be less productive compared to the scenarior where they would be a part of the EU.
“This discourages investment in the UK and ultimately means that UK workers are less productive than they would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU.”
By 2030, at the end of the first decade outside the EU, the research predicts the following outcomes:
Total trade between the UK and the EU would fall by 46%
GDP per head would fall by 3% a year, amounting to an average cost per person a year of £1,090 at today’s prices
Foreign direct investment would fall by 21%
Tax revenue would fall by 1.5-2%, the equivalent of £18-23bn over the period.
The report also modelled alternative Brexit outcomes against staying in the EU. This showed that remaining in a customs union beyond the transition period, possibly through invoking the so-called Irish “backstop”, would still mean a hit of £70bn a year.
Another scenario, favoured by some Brexit supporters, of an “orderly no deal” departure from the EU would reduce GDP by 5.5%, or £140bn a year, it said.
Source : BBC